Key Takeaways: U.S. economy remained resilient despite stubborn inflationary pressures. Cracks may be starting to show in the labor market. Global equities surge on a growth/AI related frenzy. Treasury yields climb to multi-decade highs but on pace to end the year flat. Commodities broadly lower; crude oil in bear market territory.
Key Takeaways: Investors increasing calls for “soft-landing” scenario. Inflation still not at Fed’s 2% target. Consumers may not be able to keep up with higher prices for much longer. Higher interest rates for longer mean higher interest payments. Resilient labor market creates problem for the Fed.
As we look to close out what has been a good year for investors regarding performance and we make the mad rush through the holiday shopping season, we wanted to offer our wish list for 2024. In this weekly, we offer our traditional spin on the 12 days of Christmas song with some things we are hopeful for in the year ahead. We admit some of these are just wishful thinking (and highly unlikely) but in the spirit of the holidays it never hurts to wish!
Weak economic data and persistent geopolitical turmoil has done little to derail the global equity rally this month.
While there still may be pain to be felt in the economy we can be thankful for equity markets in 2023.
Key Takeaways: Monetary policy typically acts on a lag. Aggressive tightening cycle starting to filter into the economy. Labor market is showing signs of weakening. Consumers are strained by high borrowing costs. Housing is paralyzed.