Forty "W"ritings

As we navigate through the economic landscape of 2025, investors face a complex array of challenges that suggest the possibility of continued volatility ahead. The disconnect between sentiment indicators and economic data, ongoing trade policy uncertainty, potential shifts in global investment flows, and unresolved fiscal policy questions all represent significant headwinds that may lead to market disruptions in the short term. It's important to emphasize that these are possibilities rather than certainties, but prudent investors should consider these factors in their strategic planning.

Concerns about a potential economic slowdown are rising, fiscal policy shifts and government spending cuts introduce some contractionary pressures however the near-term economic picture remains broadly positive. Tariff policies alone are unlikely to push the economy into recession. So far in 2025, diversification has re-emerged as a key with both bonds and international stocks outperforming US equities.

US stocks experienced a volatile pullback starting in Mid-July caused by some worrisome earnings reports from mega-cap tech companies, concerns about a slowing economy and geo-political tensions. Volatility is typically higher this time of the year particularly in election years when the out outcomes are uncertain.

Most market indices held on to positive returns despite a turbulent second half of July. Investors rotated away from the mega-cap tech stocks known as the "Magnificent 7" into value and small cap stocks. The stock market volatility in the second half helped drive bond yield lower pushing up bond fund returns.

The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 have grown so large that they now represent 35% of the total index because of this concentration investors in the popular index will sink or swim largely based on the performance of those companies. For the first half of 2024 investors benefitted because the top 3 stocks Nvidia, Alphabet and Microsoft collectively were up 49% which accounted for 49% of the index's return. The index as a whole was up 14.5%.