Forty "W"ritings

As we navigate through the economic landscape of 2025, investors face a complex array of challenges that suggest the possibility of continued volatility ahead. The disconnect between sentiment indicators and economic data, ongoing trade policy uncertainty, potential shifts in global investment flows, and unresolved fiscal policy questions all represent significant headwinds that may lead to market disruptions in the short term. It's important to emphasize that these are possibilities rather than certainties, but prudent investors should consider these factors in their strategic planning.

Concerns about a potential economic slowdown are rising, fiscal policy shifts and government spending cuts introduce some contractionary pressures however the near-term economic picture remains broadly positive. Tariff policies alone are unlikely to push the economy into recession. So far in 2025, diversification has re-emerged as a key with both bonds and international stocks outperforming US equities.

Quick Take Despite the stress in the banking system, including the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, global equity markets held up remarkably well in March and posted solid returns for the quarter. Underneath the calm market surface there was wide dispersion in returns across sectors, market caps and styles. Fixed-income markets had a strong quarter as longer-term bond yields fell, generating price gains.

January-at-a-Glance... Amid inflation, investor sentiment starting to believe in no-economic-recession scenario

While it can be tempting to cruise into the holiday season enjoying the spoils of another year gone by don’t forget to do one final check of your financial to-do list to make sure that you are getting everything out of 2022 that you can. Here is a quick list of some end-of-the-year planning tips.

August reminded us that following one’s emotions is a great way to lose money in the equity markets. Most major equity markets declined in August. 2022 has been a challenging year for a 60% equity / 40% fixed income portfolio with both losing value year-to-date.